Civilizations collapse. It happens. Over and over and over again. It will continue to happen as regularly as the seasons and other cyclical processes. Knowing this allows us to be prepared for change.
The average lifespan of a civilization is 336 years.
Do we think that our current civilization will be the only one in human history to NOT collapse? Given the evidence, that outcome is nothing more than wishful thinking.
Many thinkers today are warning that we are creating the conditions for our current civilization circus to go down. They are predicting that the big tent will come down, and the show will leave town just about any time now.
Take some examples from civilizations past:
Name of Civilization, [Approximately how many years it lasted]
- Ancient Egypt, Old Kingdom [505]
- Ancient Egypt, Middle Kingdom [405]
- Ancient Egypt, New Kingdom [501]
- Norte Chico Civilization [827]
- Harappan Civilization (Indus Valley Civilization) [800]
- Kerma [400]
- Akkadian Empire [187]
- Elam Civilization (Awan Dynasty) [157]
- Minoan Civilization (Protopalatial) [500]
- Xia Dynasty [500]
- Third Dynasty of Ur [46]
- Old Assyrian Empire [241]
- Middle Assyrian Empire [313]
- Neo Assyrian Empire [322]
- Elam Civilization (Eparti Dynasty) [210]
- First Babylonian Dynasty [299]
- Old Hittie Empire [250]
- Minoan Civilization (Neopalatial) [250]
- Shang Dynasty [478]
- Mycenae [400]
- Vedic Civilization [1000]
- Middle Hittite Kingdom [70]
- Elam Civilization (Middle Elamite Period) [342]
- New Hittite Kingdom [220]
- Olmecs [1000]
- Phoenicia [661]
- Zhou Dynasty (Western Period) [351]
- Kingdom of Israel and Judah [298]
- Chavin Culture [700]
- Urartu [225]
- Kushite Kingdom [1150]
- Etruscans [404]
- Zhou Dynasty (Eastern Zhou Spring Period) [330]
- Zhou Dynasty (Eastern Zhou Warring States Period) [411]
- Zhou Dynasty (Eastern Zhou Spring Period) [330]
- Zhou Dynasty (Eastern Zhou Warring States Period) [411]
- Ancient Rome [244]
- Elam Civilization (Neo-Elamite Period) [203]
- Phrygia [43]
- Lydia [144]
- Magadha Empire [364]
- Chaldean Dynasty (Babylon) [87]
- Medean Empire [66]
- Orontid Dynasty [540]
- Scythians [800]
- Mahanjanapadas [200]
- Carthage [667]
- Achaemenid Empire [220]
- Roman Republic [461]
- Nanda Empire [24]
- Ptolemaic Egypt [302]
- Classical Greek [265]
- Hellenistic [177]
- Maurya Empire [137]
- Seleucid Empire [249]
- First Chera Empire [500]
- Early Chola Empire [500]
- Maghada-Maurya [90]
- Parthian Empire [469]
- Satavahana Dynasty [450]
- Qin Dynasty [14]
- Xiongnu Empire [184]
- Han Dynasty (Western Period) [197]
- Numidia [156]
- Teotihuacans [735]
- Kingdom of Armenia [442]
- Hsiung Nu Han [120]
- Sunga Empire [112]
- Andhra [370]
- Aksumite Empire [1100]
- Kanva Dynasty [45]
- Three Kingdoms of Korea [725]
- Saka [140]
- Roman Empire [525]
- Han Dynasty (Eastern Period) [195]
- Kushan [200]
- Bactria [70]
- Ptolemaic [290]
- Liu-Sung [250]
- Gupta [90]
- Hun [100]
- Byzantine [350]
- Yuen-Yuen [30]
- Toba [130]
- White Hun [100]
- Visigoth [240]
- T'u Chueh Turk [90]
- Avar [220]
- Western Turk [70]
Moral of the story? Civilizations come, and civilizations go. Also, if we continue on our current path, sooner or later, this one will go down, too.
The HANDY Report, published in 2014, used the latest methods from NASA to come up with a potential collapse in mere decades or sooner.
Rather than finger one particular group as being the cause, the authors say that today's civilization is doomed because of "the entire fundamental structure and nature of our society."
Hmm, that won't be easy to fix, so collapse it is.
Then what? How many of us are prepared and resilient enough to handle an event like the total collapse of everything you know and love?
The good news is that when civilizations collapse, humanity goes on. When it comes right down to it, we are pretty tough.
Having said that, a large number of people simply will not make it. Those that do will be the most adaptable and prepared, not necessarily the strongest.
The skills required to survive collapse are the same across the ages. Different collapse, different time period, same survival strategy.
So what are the tried and true methods for carrying on when organized human society grinds to a halt? The good news is that they are all known and doable.
If we called it "The Great Simplification", that would give us some idea of what we might expect. Ask the Amish about that. Or preppers. Or homesteaders currently living off-grid.
Or ask the one billion humans that live without dependable power, or without any electricity at all.
The Great Simplification is coming, because civilizational collapses have happened, and will continue to happen. Today, we are rushing toward another one, although the HANDY Report does optimistically remind us that, "a sustainable steady state is shown to be possible in different types of societies".
Can we buck the trend that spans across the ages, and transform our current society into a sustainable steady state system in time to avoid collapse? I don't know, but I am not banking on it.
While helping build that sustainable future, I will also be preparing for a life without a complex organized society to support me.
"Collapse can be avoided, and population can reach a steady state at maximum carrying capacity if the rate of depletion of nature is reduced to a sustainable level and if resources are distributed equitably." - HANDY Report
I will not live in ear and I will not live a life without joy, but I will be prepared. Food, clothing, skills.
ReplyDeleteWe should not be afraid, even though it is scary, and look at it as an opportunity. An opportunity to build a more "civil" civilization.
DeleteOr perhaps there is a better alternative to a "complex society characterized by urban development, social stratification imposed by a cultural elite, symbolic systems of communication, and a perceived separation from and domination over the natural environment".
We can learn a great deal from indigenous cultures, and might start with adopting their notion of humans being but a humble, small part of the natural environment.
Regardless of what happens, it is good to be prepared in any event. Hurricane season here has officially begun.
Happy summer.
Agree with you both. Won't be afraid, but will be prepared. Appreciate the link to the HANDY report, will read that. Thank you, Mary
DeletePreparation is also on my mind. We are having some very interesting storms here in Texas in late-June. It has prompted me to think about gathering things like a good, self-charging flashlight, matches and candles, water, some food, and important documents in a preparedness bag.
ReplyDeleteI agree that fear is not a good route with this - no need to loose our wits and make foolish choices. I prefer to remain calm and see how I can be of service, to myself, my loved ones, and the world. I have read quite a bit about what is predicted -- and it IS frightening. But I would rather be joyful and content right now. Why let scary things steal my serenity by being upset about them before they happen? Fore-knowledge is not often fun to have...but I feel it has given me the added responsibility of being a good steward to what I have and preparing in a prudent fashion (not freaking out!). Plus, no one truly knows how each area of the world will be affected. All we can do is the best we can for today. Tomorrow will look after itself.
Peace,
Erin
You mention service to others, which is a worthy goal. Is there anything more important? Going forward there will be wonderful opportunities to be helpers.
DeleteI agree that we must not lose our serenity in the process. None of this should detract from the inherent beauty of each and every moment. While looking ahead, we have to remain oriented in the present.