Civilizations collapse. It happens. Over and over and over again. It will continue to happen as regularly as the seasons and other cyclical processes. Knowing this allows us to be prepared for change.
The average lifespan of a civilization is 336 years.
Do we think that our current civilization will be the only one in human history to NOT collapse? Given the evidence, that outcome is nothing more than wishful thinking.
Many thinkers today are warning that we are creating the conditions for our current civilization circus to go down. They are predicting that the big tent will come down, and the show will leave town just about any time now.
Take some examples from civilizations past:
Name of Civilization, [Approximately how many years it lasted]
- Ancient Egypt, Old Kingdom [505]
- Ancient Egypt, Middle Kingdom [405]
- Ancient Egypt, New Kingdom [501]
- Norte Chico Civilization [827]
- Harappan Civilization (Indus Valley Civilization) [800]
- Kerma [400]
- Akkadian Empire [187]
- Elam Civilization (Awan Dynasty) [157]
- Minoan Civilization (Protopalatial) [500]
- Xia Dynasty [500]
- Third Dynasty of Ur [46]
- Old Assyrian Empire [241]
- Middle Assyrian Empire [313]
- Neo Assyrian Empire [322]
- Elam Civilization (Eparti Dynasty) [210]
- First Babylonian Dynasty [299]
- Old Hittie Empire [250]
- Minoan Civilization (Neopalatial) [250]
- Shang Dynasty [478]
- Mycenae [400]
- Vedic Civilization [1000]
- Middle Hittite Kingdom [70]
- Elam Civilization (Middle Elamite Period) [342]
- New Hittite Kingdom [220]
- Olmecs [1000]
- Phoenicia [661]
- Zhou Dynasty (Western Period) [351]
- Kingdom of Israel and Judah [298]
- Chavin Culture [700]
- Urartu [225]
- Kushite Kingdom [1150]
- Etruscans [404]
- Zhou Dynasty (Eastern Zhou Spring Period) [330]
- Zhou Dynasty (Eastern Zhou Warring States Period) [411]
- Ancient Rome [244]
- Elam Civilization (Neo-Elamite Period) [203]
- Phrygia [43]
- Lydia [144]
- Magadha Empire [364]
- Chaldean Dynasty (Babylon) [87]
- Medean Empire [66]
- Orontid Dynasty [540]
- Scythians [800]
- Mahanjanapadas [200]
- Carthage [667]
- Achaemenid Empire [220]
- Roman Republic [461]
- Nanda Empire [24]
- Ptolemaic Egypt [302]
- Classical Greek [265]
- Hellenistic [177]
- Maurya Empire [137]
- Seleucid Empire [249]
- First Chera Empire [500]
- Early Chola Empire [500]
- Maghada-Maurya [90]
- Parthian Empire [469]
- Satavahana Dynasty [450]
- Qin Dynasty [14]
- Xiongnu Empire [184]
- Han Dynasty (Western Period) [197]
- Numidia [156]
- Teotihuacans [735]
- Kingdom of Armenia [442]
- Hsiung Nu Han [120]
- Sunga Empire [112]
- Andhra [370]
- Aksumite Empire [1100]
- Kanva Dynasty [45]
- Three Kingdoms of Korea [725]
- Saka [140]
- Roman Empire [525]
- Han Dynasty (Eastern Period) [195]
- Kushan [200]
- Bactria [70]
- Ptolemaic [290]
- Liu-Sung [250]
- Gupta [90]
- Hun [100]
- Byzantine [350]
- Yuen-Yuen [30]
- Toba [130]
- White Hun [100]
- Visigoth [240]
- T'u Chueh Turk [90]
- Avar [220]
- Western Turk [70]
Moral of the story? Civilizations come, and civilizations go. Also, if we continue on our current path, sooner or later, this one will go down, too.
The HANDY Report, published in 2014, used the latest methods from NASA to come up with a potential collapse in mere decades or sooner.
Rather than finger one particular group as being the cause, the authors say that today's civilization is doomed because of "the entire fundamental structure and nature of our society."
Hmm, that won't be easy to fix, so collapse it is.
Then what? How many of us are prepared and resilient enough to handle an event like the total collapse of everything you know and love?
The good news is that when civilizations collapse, humanity goes on. When it comes right down to it, we are pretty tough.
Having said that, a large number of people simply will not make it. Those that do will be the most adaptable and prepared, not necessarily the strongest.
The skills required to survive collapse are the same across the ages. Different collapse, different time period, same survival strategy.
So what are the tried and true methods for carrying on when organized human society grinds to a halt? The good news is that they are all known and doable.
If we called it "The Great Simplification", that would give us some idea of what we might expect. Ask the Amish about that. Or preppers. Or homesteaders currently living off-grid.
Or ask the one billion humans that live without dependable power, or without any electricity at all.
The Great Simplification is coming, because civilizational collapses have happened, and will continue to happen. Today, we are rushing toward another one, although the HANDY Report does optimistically remind us that, "a sustainable steady state is shown to be possible in different types of societies".
Can we buck the trend that spans across the ages, and transform our current society into a sustainable steady state system in time to avoid collapse? I don't know, but I am not banking on it.
While helping build that sustainable future, I will also be preparing for a life without a complex organized society to support me.
"Collapse can be avoided, and population can reach a steady state at maximum carrying capacity if the rate of depletion of nature is reduced to a sustainable level and if resources are distributed equitably." - HANDY Report
